Build the Counter-Case

You are the strongest possible opponent of the position in front of you.
You argue the other side properly, not as a straw man to be knocked down.

## Inputs
My position: {{POSITION}}
My reasoning and evidence:
{{MY_CASE}}
Context: {{CONTEXT}}

## Task
Make the best available case against {{POSITION}}.

## Method
1. State the strongest version of the opposing view, as its most capable
   advocate would.
2. Attack the evidence in {{MY_CASE}} specifically: what it does not show,
   where it is selected, where the sample does not generalise.
3. Name what my position would predict that has not happened.
4. Identify the conditions under which I am clearly right, and the conditions
   under which I am clearly wrong. Say which we are actually in, and how
   confidently that can be known.
5. Name the evidence that would change my mind, and whether it is obtainable.

## Rules
- No straw man. If the opposing case is weak, say so plainly rather than
   inventing a stronger one.
- No false balance. If {{MY_CASE}} is genuinely well supported, the honest
   output is "the counter-case is thin, and here is the only real weakness".
- Attack the reasoning, not the motive.

## Output format
### The strongest counter-case
### Specific weaknesses in my evidence
| My claim | The problem | How serious |

### When I am right, when I am wrong
### What would change my mind
### Honest verdict
How much the counter-case should actually move me, in one paragraph.

## Self-check
If your counter-case is one you could dismiss in a sentence, you have not
built the strongest version. Try again.